• Finnish Meteorological Institute confirmed that March had been "colder than usual" – thereby reinforcing the fact of the error



• The errors are common in Meteorological Aviation Reports (METAR)



• Weather station reports at airports now form the major component of data sets feeding into the GHCN database; the hourly reports being used to compile monthly averages of temperature – which in turn feed into the determination of Global Mean Temperature for each month and annually



• These spikes inevitably lead to an over-estimation of temperature

• Two (2) primary measures of global temperature and climate change:


• Surface-based determination of Global Mean Temperatures involving data
   from surface and oceanic weather stations (CRU/GISS/GHCN)

• Satellite-based determination of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH)

• Contrary to the claims of the IPCC and advocates of AGW, the earth is currently cooling



• Evidence for this is to be found in:

• Record low temperatures throughout the Northern Hemisphere
   in 2008-09 and 2009-10
• Shortened summers and protracted winters
• Expanding Arctic sea ice
• Expanding sea ice around and build-up of icesheets
   on continental Antarctica and Greenland

What were the possible drivers behind the "Big Freeze" conditions experienced during the Northern Hemisphere winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11?

To answer this question we need to look back at climate change over the past few centuries. Let's firstly look at possible triggers at the time of the "Little Ice Age".

• Concurrent with reductions in sunspot activity is a weakening of the sun's geomagnetic strength



• Unfortunately, observations of the sun's geomagnetic strength only go back as far as 1844; therefore, they post-date the Maunder and Dalton Minimums



• The sun's geomagnetic strength (expressed as the Planetary Index or Ap) is depicted in the following two graphs:

• The first graph depicts the history over the past 165 years
• The second graph depicts for the past decade

• As the sun's geomagnetic activity declines, so too does its sunspot activity. This coincides with "Solar Minimum"



• Conversely, when geomagnetic activity is at its strongest, so too is sunspot activity. This coincides with "Solar Maximum"



• Usually a cycle occurs every 11 years; however, occasionally Deep Solar Minima occur – extending the length of the cycle



• We are currently experiencing a "Deep Solar Minimum"; the rejuvenation phase for Cycle 24 having taken place at least 12.8 years after the previous "Solar Minimum" (in late 1996)

So let's now move the focus to recent sunspot activity.

• Sunspot Cycle 23 was observed to be slightly weaker than Cycle 22



• Present indications are that the current cycle – Sunspot Cycle 24 – will be much weaker than SC 23; so much so that NASA has been forced to revise its July 2007 forecast downwards on two separate occasions (October 2010 and February 2011)

Downward revision of predictions for Solar Sunspot Cycle 24.

• There have been lengthy periods during which there were no sunspots at all:

• 54 days (1879)
• 63 days (1901)
• 51 days (July/August 2009)

• 2008 produced 266 sunspot-free days; and 2009 six less at 260



• Sunspot activity seemed to be on the increase towards the end of 2009 – suggesting the end of the Solar Minimum and the start of the new sunspot cycle (#24)



• However, it dipped again, in the 2^nd Quarter of 2010



• April 2010 = 6 sunspots and 15 days without sunspots



• May 2010 = 8 sunspots and 12 days without sunspots (to 20.05.2010)

• A drop in sunspot activity and solar wind is not, however, the sole cause behind declining temperatures



• Several other drivers are needed, including:

• Warm oceans (often associated with El Niño events), and
• An increase in the formation of low-level clouds;
   that is, less than 3,000m above sea level
• Generation of higher atmospheric levels of humidity (water vapour)
   beneath a blanket of increasing low-level cloud cover

A brief background to Henrik Svensmark:

• Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) in Copenhagen



• Head of the Centre of Sun-Climate Research at the Danish National Space Centre



• Previously held research positions at the University of California, Berkeley (USA), the Nordic Institute of Theoretical Physics, the Niels Bohr Institute and the Danish Meteorological Institute



• Received very little funding for his research at DTU (largely because his hypothesis ran counter to prevailing views on climate change)

According to Svensmark:

• Cosmic rays are the trigger for the formation of lower tropospheric clouds via cloud condensation nuclei



• When the sun goes quiet and the solar wind decreases, more cosmic rays reach the earth's troposphere – thereby intensifying cloud formation, increasing albedo effect (i.e., reflecting heat away from the earth) and consequently, global cooling



• Conversely, when the sun is active, less cosmic rays reach the troposphere and low level clouds decrease, triggering warmer temperatures on earth

The story of the validation of Svensmark's theory and hypothesis is told in the book – The Chilling Stars – co-authored with Nigel Calder (Icon Books, Cambridge, UK, 2008 Edition)

• Alternating El Niño and La Niña events and longer-term oceanic temperature changes, including Southern and Northern Oscillations over 25 to 30 years



• Pacific Decadal Oscillations



• Oceanic "heat sinks" for CO₂



• Albedo generators – clouds, ice and snow



• Increasing human population and urban sprawl – both of which contribute to and accelerate "urban heat island" effect

• A link was established between cosmic ray variation and the Southern Pacific Oscillation by Dr. Horst Borchert (Johannes Gutenberg Institute, University of Mainz, Germany)




• A link between CO₂ and climate change was not found by Borchert




• An English translation of his paper is not available at the time of writing.




• Figure 2 from his paper is featured on the following slide.

Increased cloud cover and colder atmospheric temperatures are not, of themselves, sufficient to generate increased snowfall. The earth's atmosphere needs one other ingredient. What is that ingredient?

High levels of atmospheric water vapour (or humidity).

Go to Part 1 2..66      • A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History • The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie' • AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not? • Politics and the IPCC • The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008) • A Political Agenda – The Club of Rome • Convenient Fiction • Determining Global Mean Temperature – Climategate • The Science behind the Global Warming Debate – Scientists Behaving Badly • The Notorious "Hockey-Stick" Graph • Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period • Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"

Go to Part 2 67..93      • The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Go to Part 3 94..141a      • Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect • Skewing the Results • Siting and Quality of Weather Stations • Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures • Hiding the Recent Decline in Mean Temperature • Is Increased CO₂ Concentration Unique?

Go to Part 4 142..184a      • Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 5 185..209a      • Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 6 210..236      • Glacial Retreat? • Polar Bears & Walruses • Rising Sea Levels?

You are viewing Part 7
• Errant Spikes in METAR Temperature Data Sets 237..239
• Widening Gap between Lower Tropospheric and Surface-Based Temperature Trends 240..246
• Record Low Temperatures in Northern Winter 2009/10 247..249      • in Southern Winter 2010 250..252
• Solar Activity and Climate Change 253..282      • Cosmic Ray Induced Climate Change 276..252
• Other Factors influencing Recent Climate Change 283..293